The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility          下载免费PDF全文

Jing Wu  Jian Yin  Yonghong Hao  Yan Liu  Yonghui Fan  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2015,29(13):2855-2866

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Research on red tide occurrences using enclosed experimental ecosystems in west Xiamen Harbor, China—Relationship between various factors and red tide occurrences     

Lin Yu  P. J. Harrison 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2000,18(2):148-156

A series of enclosed ecosystem experiments were conducted in a land-based tank near the seaside of West Xiamen Harbor. The results of experiments conducted in different seasons and years showed a repeatable phytoplankton succession. In this relatively stable ecosystem with added nutrients and trace metals, diatoms dominated initially, dinoflagellates dominated in the later stage, and dinoflagellate red tides eventually occurred. Vitamin B₁₂ enrichment may speed up this succession process. Stirring the water column could stop this process. Soluble Mn at a level of 3–4 μg/L in seawater, which also is the existing concentration of soluble Mn in Xiamen Harbor seawater, is sufficient for the multiplication of algae and occurrence of red tide. The present study showed that excessive soluble Mn in Xiamen Harbor cannot cause red tide, and that Fe was one of the important factors causing diatiom red tide in this present study. Project 39570145 supported by NSFC.  相似文献   

Diel and seasonal variability in the fish community structure of a mud‐bottom estuarine habitat in the Gulf of Mexico     

Manuel Castillo‐Rivera  Rocío Zárate‐Hernández  Selene Ortiz‐Burgos  José Zavala‐Hurtado 《Marine Ecology》2010,31(4):633-642

We hypothesized that temporal variation in fish species composition and community structure in a low complexity habitat in the Pueblo Viejo Lagoon, Mexico, is influenced by diel light/dark cycles and tidal stage, and by seasonal changes in salinity and temperature. We collected a total of 17,661 individuals during 2‐h interval sampling over six bi‐monthly 24‐h sampling cycles representing 53 species, of which 11 (～20%) were previously unknown in the system. Diel variation indicated that significantly higher numbers of individuals and species were caught at night, whereas diversity and evenness were higher during the day. Species richness was significantly higher in July and January, whereas diversity and evenness peaked around May; both were correlated with temperature. Diel variation in species composition was influenced primarily by the light/dark cycle. Cluster analyses of each diel cycle separated fish assemblages from midday samples from those of nocturnal samples, separated by an extended wide transition period as fish moved at dawn and during the late afternoon/dusk. Significant shifts (as determined by MANOVA) in assemblage structure occurred between months. Canonical correspondence analysis showed that temperature and day/night effects were the most important environmental variables structuring the fish community. This constrained ordination also defined species with specific habitat preferences as follows: (i) diurnal, warm temperature species (mainly planktivores) (Brevoortia gunteri, Cetengraulis edentulus, Diapterus auratus, and Membras martinica); (ii) nocturnal, warm temperature species (mainly predators) (Citharichthys spilopterus, Cathorops melanopus, and Bairdiella spp.); and (iii) low temperature, diurnal species (Brevoortia patronus and Mugil curema) or those with twilight and nocturnal distributions (Anchoa mitchilli, the most numerically abundant species). Our results indicate that diel and seasonal changes in fish community structure were mainly related to day/night cycles and temperature regimes.  相似文献   

The significance of giant seismites in the Plio‐Pleistocene Baza palaeo‐lake (S Spain)     

Pedro Alfaro  Luis Gibert  Massimo Moretti  Francisco J. García‐Tortosa  Carlos Sanz de Galdeano  Jesús Galindo‐Zaldívar  Ángel C. López‐Garrido 《地学学报》2010,22(3):172-179

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Delineation of spatial redox zones using discriminant analysis and geochemical modelling in arsenic‐affected alluvial aquifers     

Jin‐Jing Lee  Cheng‐Shin Jang  Sheng‐Wei Wang  Chin‐Ping Liang  Chen‐Wuing Liu 《水文研究》2008,22(16):3029-3041

This study characterized the redox conditions in arsenic‐affected groundwater aquifers of the Lanyang plain, Taiwan. Discriminant analysis was adopted to delineate three redox zones (oxidative, transitional and reductive zones) in different aquifers and yielded 92·3% correctness on groundwater quality data. Arsenic is mainly distributed in the reductive zone, and arsenic distribution in the shallow aquifer is mainly affected by surface activities. According to PHREEQC modelling results, possible mechanisms for arsenic release to groundwater in Lanyang plain are explored. Arsenic released to groundwater in the oxidative zone (zone 1) is primarily caused by the oxidations of arsenic‐bearing pyrite minerals, and arsenate is the predominant species. While the reductive dissolution of Fe‐oxides are responsible for the high arsenic concentration found in the transitional and reductive zones (zones 2 and 3), arsenite is the predominant species. The reduction potential of groundwater rises as the depths and zones increase. Some sulphates may be reduced to form sulphide ions, which then react with arsenic to form arseno‐sulphide deposits (such as realgar, orpiment) and then slightly lower groundwater arsenic concentrations. A conceptual diagram which summarized the possible release processes of arsenic in different redox zones along groundwater flow in Lanyang plain is postulated. Arsenic‐bearing pyrite and arsenopyrite (FeAsS) are oxidized as they are exposed to the infiltrated oxygenated rainwater, releasing soluble arsenate Fe(II) and SO₄^2? into zone 1. The dissolution of arsenic‐rich Fe‐oxides due to the onset of reducing conditions in zones 2 and 3 is responsible for the mobility of arsenic and likely to be the primary mechanism of arsenic release to groundwater in the Lanyang plain Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Combined use of spot samples and continuous integrated sampling in a study of storm runoff from a lowland catchment in the south of England     

A. Gkritzalis‐Papadopoulos  M. R. Palmer  M. C. Mowlem 《水文研究》2012,26(2):297-307

We have used two different sampling techniques to study the geochemical response of a small lowland rural catchment to episodic storm runoff. The first method involves traditional daily spot sampling and has been used to develop a standard end‐member mixing analysis (EMMA) of the relative contributions of ground water flow and surface runoff to the total stream flow. The second method utilizes a continuous sampling device, powered by an osmotic pump, to produce an integrated 24‐h sample of the stream flow. When combined with the EMMA results from the spot samples, analyses of the integrated samples reveal the presence of a third component that makes a significant contribution to the dissolved NO₃, Ca and K export from the catchment during the rising limb of the hydrographic profile of a storm event following a prolonged dry period. The storm occurred in the middle of the night, so that the response of the stream chemistry was not captured by the daily samples. We hypothesize that this third component is derived from the flushing of stored soil water that contains the geochemical signature of decaying vegetation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Meteor showers and their parent comets,by Peter Jenniskens     

Josep Maria Trigo‐Rodríguez 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2007,42(3):471-472

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Coupled surface and ground water models for investigating hydrological processes     

Ray‐Shyan Wu  Dong‐Sin Shih  Ming‐Hsu Li  Chia‐Ching Niu 《水文研究》2008,22(8):1216-1229

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A systematic approach to the input determination for neural network rainfall–runoff models     

Gwo‐Fong Lin  Guo‐Rong Chen 《水文研究》2008,22(14):2524-2530

Input determination has a great influence on the performance of artificial neural network (ANN) rainfall–runoff models. To improve the performance of ANN models, a systematic approach to the input determination for ANN models is proposed. In the proposed approach, the irrelevant inputs are removed. Then an adequate ANN model, which only includes highly relevant inputs, is constructed. Unlike the trial‐and‐error procedure, the proposed approach is more systematic and avoids unnecessary trials. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, an application to actual typhoon events is presented. The results show that the proposed ANN model, which is constructed by the proposed approach, has advantages over those obtained by the trial‐and‐error procedure. The proposed ANN model has a simpler architecture, needs less training time, and performs better. The proposed ANN model is recommended as an alternative to existing rainfall–runoff ANN models. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A new solution for a partially penetrating constant‐rate pumping well with a finite‐thickness skin     

Pin‐Yuan Chiu  Hund‐Der Yeh  Shaw‐Yang Yang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2007,31(15):1659-1674

A mathematical model describing the constant pumping is developed for a partially penetrating well in a heterogeneous aquifer system. The Laplace‐domain solution for the model is derived by applying the Laplace transforms with respect to time and the finite Fourier cosine transforms with respect to vertical co‐ordinates. This solution is used to produce the curves of dimensionless drawdown versus dimensionless time to investigate the influences of the patch zone and well partial penetration on the drawdown distributions. The results show that the dimensionless drawdown depends on the hydraulic properties of the patch and formation zones. The effect of a partially penetrating well on the drawdown with a negative patch zone is larger than that with a positive patch zone. For a single‐zone aquifer case, neglecting the effect of a well radius will give significant error in estimating dimensionless drawdown, especially when dimensionless distance is small. The dimensionless drawdown curves for cases with and without considering the well radius approach the Hantush equation (Advances in Hydroscience. Academic Press: New York, 1964) at large time and/or large distance away from a test well. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献